Human Signal Index
Transparency

Forecast accountability

We record forecasts before outcomes are known, then evaluate them against reality. Here is the honest scorecard — including the ones we got wrong.

0
Active
0
Resolved
0
Correct
0
Incorrect
0%
Accuracy
0/100
Calibration
0%
Resolution rate
0
Expired

Calibration curve

Stated confidence vs actual accuracy, per band. Well-calibrated = the two match.

No resolved forecasts yet.

Accuracy trend

  • Oct 17, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0
  • Oct 18, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0
  • Oct 19, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0
  • Oct 20, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0
  • Oct 21, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0
  • Oct 22, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0
  • Oct 23, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0
  • Oct 24, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0
  • Oct 25, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0
  • Oct 26, 2026accuracy 0% · calibration 0 · volume 0

Resolution timeline

No resolved forecasts yet.

Active forecasts

No active forecasts.